Wet Weather on the Horizon…then a Pattern Change Coming Up

Jeff MendelsonWestern New York

Good Morning Everyone!

All of us here at Neoweather and Nor’Cast Weather hope that you had a great Summer and are having a Wonderful Autumn Season!

After some unseasonably mild conditions the last week, the overall weather pattern, will be “flipping” to more seasonable Mid November-like weather, and even colder, so get ready to start digging out the warmer coats and hats once again.

Nice weather will continue, with plenty of sunshine, through Thursday. Afternoon high temps will be near or around 49 this afternoon, mid-upper 50s Wednesday and briefly back into the 60s on Thursday (remember, the normal afternoon high temperature for this time of year is around 50 degrees).

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nicole (currently situated just east of the Bahamas out in the Atlantic Ocean) will be making landfall across eastern Florida as a hurricane by Daybreak Thursday morning.

The remnants of this system, and all of the tropical moisture, will then curve north, head up the Eastern US and merge with an approaching cold front out west.

These 2 systems will affect our area with some rain during Friday.

While it looks like the heaviest rainfall (from both the remnants of Nicole and the front) will pass just off to our east across Pennsylvania, we could still see a half inch to around an inch of rain before the wet weather ends later Friday night.

Potential Total Rainfall through Saturday morning

The image above represents a computer, model-output depiction of the “potential” total rainfall through Saturday morning. The areas of green (off to our west and north) indicates less rain, while the areas of orange and red (across Central New York and Pennsylvania to our east) represents higher amounts of rain (of around 2 inches or more). As you can see, the Buffalo area has the potential to see on either side of a half inch to an inch of rainfall into Saturday morning.

Model Projected High Temp for Friday

The image above represents a model output projection for the high temperature for Friday. As you can see, temperatures will remain above normal, with highs expected to be in the lower 60s while the rain is falling.

After the wet weather ends, strong NW winds in the wake of the storm and passage of the front will usher in much chillier air on Saturday and continue through Sunday. As a result, afternoon high temps will be much lower as we head toward next weekend.

Model Projected High Temp for Saturday
Model Projected High Temp for Sunday

Afternoon temperatures will remain in the 40s on Saturday and possibly not get out of the 30s by Sunday.

In addition, the colder unstable air interacting with the still milder Lake could produce a few scattered light rain and wet snow showers by Sunday morning and continuing into Sunday afternoon. We’ll update you further on this as we get a bit closer to the weekend.

It looks like temperatures may remain below normal for a good part of next week as well.

Needless to say, after some very mild, late summer-like, weather the last several days, the weather pattern will finally flip to a more November-like feel over the next week and beyond.

It’s an honor and pleasure to provide with the absolute best weather information and we will continue to always be at your service in case you have any questions and/or concerns as we head into this upcoming 2022-2023 Winter Season.

If you all have any questions about the forecast moving forward, please drop us a line and let us know.

Thanks so much!